Early Predictions for 2019 Hurricane Season

5/1/2019 (Permalink)

Early hurricane season predictions help us know what to expect, however, we should always prepare for the worse as they have been wrong in the past.

Even though the severe weather from last year's tropical season only ended four months ago, it is just another month until the upcoming 2019 Atlantic hurricane season kicks off on June 1st. The season extends through November 30th, with approximately 95 percent of all the major storms happening after August 1st in the so-called peak season. Earlier in April, Colorado State University's highly respected hurricane predictions research team unveiled its early tropical predictions for 2019. With more than 35 years under their belts, this year they are calling for a slightly less active than usual hurricane season. 

Early Hurricane Predictions For 2019 Hurricanes Season 

Colorado State University is predicting for 2019 hurricanes 13 named storms, with five of them becoming hurricanes and two evolving into major hurricanes. This is close to the usual quantity of predicted storms. The good news is that overall tropical activity (measured based on the storms' intensity and total energy rather than the number of named storms) has been forecast at a little below the average season. In the typical tropical season, there are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes sweeping through the Atlantic Ocean or the Caribbean Sea.

How These Predictions Are Made and Compare to the 2018 Season

The Colorado State University team contemplates the present day state of El Nino and the Atlantic Ocean temperatures in coming up with its highly anticipated tropical outlook. The two important elements are showing the season will be less active than usual. 

In 2018's tropical season, the number of storms proved to be 15 named, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The two major storms were Hurricanes Michael and Florence. Hurricane Michael landed in Mexico Beach, Florida with stunning total winds of 155 miles per hour on October 10th at almost Category 5 power. This proved to be among the most potent hurricanes to ever make landfall in the United States. For its central barometric pressure, this was the third most powerful storm in history to land in the U.S. No landfalling storm since Hurricane Andrew (smashing into south Florida in August of 1992 and leveling everything in its landing) boasted the winds of Michael. Michael's economic impact is estimated by economists to run $25 billion. 

Hurricane Florence landed in North and South Carolina back in September of 2018. The storm poured out over 30 inches worth of rain, causing severe flooding for many days. Over a dozen individual rivers reached major flood levels, causing forced evacuations and devastating property damage. Both Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Floyd (1999) had their flood records destroyed by Florence. It caused an estimated approximately $25 billion in damage as well. 

Colorado State University's team is not the only one making hurricane season forecasts. AccuWeather the private service has predicted a greater number of storms for the season, with from five to seven full hurricanes. AccuWeather was quick to remind that seasons with fewer storms than average have still produced devastating hurricanes.

Predictions Have Sometimes Been Far Off In The Past 

In the last several years, the initial forecasts from Colorado State University have been pretty accurate. In 2018 they called for seven hurricanes and eight occurred. For 2016, they predicted six when seven hurricanes actually formed. 

Yet they missed the outcome of season 2017 pretty significantly, as did the other hurricane forecasting outfits. While they predicted four hurricanes in 2017, the season produced 10. Among these were the hugely destructive Irma, Harvey, and Maria. This once again goes to show you that even a low number of predicted hurricanes for a season can still lead to hugely destructive hurricanes in the end. Because of this possibility, it is always important to prepare for a hurricane regardless of early predictions.